{"id":109,"date":"1956-06-01T00:05:09","date_gmt":"1956-06-01T00:05:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/2007\/02\/04\/note-demographique\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T14:59:17","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T14:59:17","slug":"note-demographique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/1956\/06\/01\/note-demographique\/","title":{"rendered":"Note d\u00e9mographique"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n

    En France la situa\u00adtion d\u00e9mo\u00adgra\u00adphique \u00e9tait deve\u00adnue par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adli\u00e8\u00adre\u00adment d\u00e9fi\u00adci\u00adtaire apr\u00e8s la guerre de 14\u200a\u2013\u200a18. Ceci se tra\u00addui\u00adsait par une baisse r\u00e9gu\u00adli\u00e8re des classes n\u00e9es dans cette p\u00e9riode.<\/p>\n

    Or, depuis la guerre de 39\u200a\u2013\u200a45 cette \u00e9vo\u00adlu\u00adtion d\u00e9ca\u00addente est ren\u00adver\u00ads\u00e9e : le taux de la repro\u00adduc\u00adtion d\u00e9passe le taux de rem\u00adpla\u00adce\u00adment et atteint pour la p\u00e9riode 40\u200a\u2013\u200a54 entre 110 et 120 ce qui \u00e9qui\u00advaut \u00e0 dire que la popu\u00adla\u00adtion, \u00e0 ce rythme, s\u2019ac\u00adcro\u00eet de 10 \u00e0 20 % en 25 ans.<\/p>\n

    On pr\u00e9\u00advoit donc \u00e0 par\u00adtir de la p\u00e9riode 1963\u200a\u2013\u200a65 des classes d\u2019\u00e2ge actif une fois et demi sup\u00e9\u00adrieures aux classes d\u2019\u00e2ge actuel\u00adle\u00adment en activit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

    Ce qui veut dire qu\u2019en 1963\u200a\u2013\u200a65 il y aura 3 offres de tra\u00advail l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il y en a 2 aujourd\u2019\u00adhui et o\u00f9 il n\u2019y en aura gu\u00e8re plus d\u2019une dans 5 \u00e0 6 ans (du fait de la baisse accen\u00adtu\u00e9e de nata\u00adli\u00adt\u00e9 avant 1939).<\/p>\n

    Donc : baisse sen\u00adsible des offres d\u2019emploi puis\u00adqu\u2019un peu plus tard que 1950 \u2015 ceci en har\u00admo\u00adnie avec la ten\u00addance tech\u00adno\u00adlo\u00adgique (\u00ab Auto\u00adma\u00adtion \u00bb) \u00e0 la res\u00adtric\u00adtion de la demande de main-d\u2019\u0153uvre.<\/p>\n

    Mais \u00e0 par\u00adtir de 1963\u200a\u2013\u200a65 appa\u00adri\u00adtion mas\u00adsive sur le mar\u00adch\u00e9 du tra\u00advail de classes jeunes tra\u00advailleurs presque 2 fois sup\u00e9\u00adrieures \u00e0 celles arri\u00adv\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e2ge d\u2019ac\u00adti\u00advi\u00adt\u00e9, dans les ann\u00e9es imm\u00e9\u00addia\u00adte\u00adment ant\u00e9\u00adrieures. Alors que selon toute vrai\u00adsem\u00adblance l\u2019au\u00adto\u00adma\u00adtion sera en pro\u00adgr\u00e8s accru.<\/p>\n

    Alors, appa\u00adra\u00ee\u00adtront plus proches que jamais les pers\u00adpec\u00adtives suivantes :<\/p>\n

    Ou la classe ouvri\u00e8re aura obte\u00adnu une r\u00e9duc\u00adtion ver\u00adti\u00adcale des heures, jours, mois et ann\u00e9es de travail.<\/p>\n

    Ou l\u2019\u00c9\u00adtat aura pris les devants en mul\u00adti\u00adpliant les emplois non pro\u00adduc\u00adtifs plus ou moins para\u00adsi\u00adtaires : bureau\u00adcra\u00adtie des ser\u00advices admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00adtifs et militarisation.<\/p>\n

    Ou une explo\u00adsion r\u00e9vo\u00adlu\u00adtion\u00adnaire sera deve\u00adnue in\u00e9vitable.<\/p>\n

    Ou, enfin, conjonc\u00adtion et oppo\u00adsi\u00adtion de ces trois ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    En France la situa\u00adtion d\u00e9mo\u00adgra\u00adphique \u00e9tait deve\u00adnue par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adli\u00e8\u00adre\u00adment d\u00e9fi\u00adci\u00adtaire apr\u00e8s la guerre de 14 \u2013 18. Ceci se tra\u00addui\u00adsait par une baisse r\u00e9gu\u00adli\u00e8re des classes n\u00e9es dans cette p\u00e9riode.     Or, depuis la guerre de 39 \u2013 45 cette \u00e9vo\u00adlu\u00adtion d\u00e9ca\u00addente est ren\u00adver\u00ads\u00e9e : le taux de la repro\u00adduc\u00adtion d\u00e9passe le taux de rem\u00adpla\u00adce\u00adment et atteint pour la p\u00e9riode [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":9035,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"wp-custom-template-page-d-article","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[1227],"ppma_author":[680],"class_list":["post-109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noir-rouge-n2-ete-1956","tag-statistiques-economiques"],"authors":[{"term_id":680,"user_id":8,"is_guest":0,"slug":"anonyme","display_name":"Anonyme","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cdccebf2bbf18d75df96a6721f7ce7f7ec80d026f1b8ec6be93de563bca5236b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","author_category":"","user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","job_title":"","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9718,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109\/revisions\/9718"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/la-presse-anarchiste.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}